Bleak Topic - Global Warming - What major resort will be first to throw in the towel?

[lucasulmer]

Kind of impossible to answer, but I wonder if any mountain ranges will actually get better in the warming world, i.e. more extreme/frequent storms. Does anybody know of any place where this seems to be true?

[MitchFitch3]

Outside of the U.S. I would imagine Coronet Peak in NZ with base elevation around 3500ft or Thredbo in AU with a base elevation of about 4500ft. On top of that the seasons in the southern hemisphere are much shorter.

[ddgdl]

I would bet everything in AZ closes within a decade or so. NM likely next after that, with Taos being the last one standing

[raisingarizona13]

I would bet everything in AZ closes within a decade or so. NM likely next after that, with Taos being the last one standing

I'm guessing you don't have much experience skiing here.

I think it's more complicated than that. Sure, Arizona and New Mexico are the simple and obvious immediate responses but there's more to it than pointing out the farthest southern south west ski areas.

I'll use Snowbowl as an example since I'm familiar and I promise this isn't a defensive knee jerk reaction because it's been my home ski area for 20 years. If it closes I'm fine with that honestly. I'm at a point in life where everything "is what it is", I know that may sound dark to some but.....it is what it is!

So, Snowbowl sits at an elevation between 9300 to 11,500. It's high and is predominantly north facing so it has great snow retention. The sun here is strong and the days are often warm but the nights are generally very cold giving them optimal conditions for blowing snow. The water for snowmaking comes from reclaimed waste water so even though we are going into critical drought conditions they are likely going to have water for many years to come. It's an incredibly successful little ski area now and is the only shop in town within a two hour drive of a massive population base. I compare it to Hunter in NY as far as cornering a market except here there is zero competition. Even if Mother Nature runs completely dry they can still be hugely profitable by making man made snow for the desert dwelling masses. It's a huge local economic booster so even as conditions become critical the local villagers are going to fight as hard as they can to keep the place open. The only way it would be shut down imo is if things get so bad that we are relying on reclaimed waste water for our basic needs. It's probably going to take a while before people are going to be convinced to drink their own piss and shit water no matter how bad ass those filters are.

The ski areas that are going to go down first are the smaller operations that don't have a reliable source of water for snowmaking or any snowmaking at all, don't have a strong base to market to and are at lower elevations. Think Sipapu, Pajarito, Mount Lemon (already runs on life support from a wealthy owner) or Elk Ridge (closed years ago) in Williams, AZ. Shit, Sipapu, Hesperus and Pajarito could be argued that they already are on life support that's paid for by Snowbowl and Purgatory's success. Maybe that little joint in Utah as well. Colemans wealth is a factor too I imagine but as a stand alone ski area, Snowbowl rakes it in. Seriously, I wouldn't be surprised if it's in the top five most financially viable ski areas in the country. I'm no expert but I bet this is comparable to ski areas in every state no matter how far north. Some will continue to hold on as others fade away because of the exact same factors.

Taos I imagine will be holding on as long as they can, it's a classic and people aren't going to let go of it. It's high in elevation but I'd bet ya it doesn't make nearly as much money as Snowbowl does and I don't see much of a reason for people to vacation there if they are opened solely on their ski runs that have snowmaking. Taos is kind of in the middle of nowhere. There's little reason for Albuquerque skiers to drive to Taos for artificial skiing surfaces when Santa Fe (has a base elevation of 10,350 ft.) could have the same amount of acreage covered in snowmaking. In fact, I could see Ski Santa Fe's success becoming stronger as natural snow disappears, not Taos.

California ski areas may be more volatile than AZ and NM resorts. They are mostly at lower elevations and already feeling the pinch of a changing climate plus Californias wildfire problem isn't getting any better.

One thing worth noting is that as the weather patterns change we are seeing different sorts of storms in the SW. Yeah, sometimes it rains to the roof but a lot of the time we are getting much heavier snow, both in volume and water content. It's not like that cold smoke Colorado fluff where 100 inches of new equals 35 inches of base, it only takes 40 inches of snow to get that 35 inch base. So far I think we've had what? 75-85 inches of snow this season but guess what? It's set us up for a base that will last throughout the busy periods and keep the area opened until April. We don't need a ton of snow to be successful and truthfully, most people prefer warm and sunny skiing anyways! even though the weather is getting harder to predict and the pendulum swings are more extreme when we do get snow, we get some pretty intense storms. That aspect is still sort of the unknown. Imagine the San Juan mountains getting a snowpack that behaves more coastal, is warmer and has more reliable stability. That thought is kind of exciting, imagine the ski lines that would more regularly come into play.

There's a lot more factors in this than who's the farthest south or where is it drying out the most. A lot will be based on an ability to create snow and if there's a market for profitability.

[TahoeJ]

Bleak Topic - Global Warming - What major resort will be first to throw in the towel?

The most notable trend over the past 10 years or so in CA is just extremes. When the faucet turns on we get these absolutely massive record breaking storms (200 inches in just 2 weeks this December) then it won’t snow at all for weeks or even months (6 straight weeks and counting at the moment).

The warmer temps on average have raised the snow line much of the time so I was envisioning a day when a place like Squaw would only be skiable up top, but now with these extremes that deliver really cold low elevation snow I don’t see that happening anymore. It’s just going to be a boom or bust cycle moving forward I suspect.

[raisingarizona13]

The most notable trend over the past 10 years or so in CA is just extremes. When the faucet turns on we get these absolutely massive record breaking storms (200 inches in just 2 weeks this December) then it won’t snow at all for weeks or even months (6 straight weeks and counting at the moment).

The warmer temps on average have raised the snow line much of the time so I was envisioning a day when a place like Squaw would only be skiable up top, but now with these extremes that deliver really cold low elevation snow I don’t see that happening anymore. It’s just going to be a boom or bust cycle moving forward I suspect.

Yup, and that's going to weed out the weak regardless of longitude.

[raisingarizona13]

Another thing worth noting is that even though say, The Arizona Snowbowl will likely continue to be successful in a drying and warming planet that doesn't mean it will be a place you or I care to ski or can afford. I often hear people say that they'll go ski wherever they can during these conversations but I secretly think to myself that this person doesn't quite understand the actual implications at play here. As more ski areas close skiing will become more excluded and crowded. You'll have to pay top dollar for a diminished "guest experience" to the point that someone like myself won't find it attractive any longer. It's already becoming like that. I'm not a huge fan of hyped up powder days anymore, it's just too much. Weekends? They're generally a nope for me, a pow day on a Saturday? Oh fuck no!

During the Christmas holiday period Snowbowl had several days where day tickets were 250 bucks, at Snowbowl! People on Social medias were outraged demanding them to drop their prices because Snowbowl isn't worth those prices but I imagine these people don't exactly get capitalism very well because guess what? The parking lots were full. As the options become limited the demand will go up and so will the prices pushing a lot of us away from the sport.

[Dantheman]

The warmer temps on average have raised the snow line much of the time so I was envisioning a day when a place like Squaw would only be skiable up top, but now with these extremes that deliver really cold low elevation snow I don’t see that happening anymore. It’s just going to be a boom or bust cycle moving forward I suspect.

I can definitely see Mt. Shasta Ski Park having serious problems in the near future. There's already been multiple years in the last decade where they haven't opened at all due to lack of snow. Some of those years there was plenty of snow above Bunny, but the ski park just got rain all winter. I grew up skiing there and that simply never happened. Hopefully they can pivot to summer ops enough to be able to stay open and still offer skiing in the years it does snow.

[turbomike15]

Imagine the San Juan mountains getting a snowpack that behaves more coastal, is warmer and has more reliable stability. That thought is kind of exciting, imagine the ski lines that would more regularly come into play.

this may be the only hope i have re:global warming/climate change

[skinipenem]

. There's little reason for Albuquerque skiers to drive to Taos for artificial skiing surfaces when Santa Fe (has a base elevation of 10,350 ft.) could have the same amount of acreage covered in snowmaking. In fact, I could see Ski Santa Fe's success becoming stronger as natural snow disappears, not Taos.

I think ski Santa fe has a limited / apportioned amount of water they can use each year for snowmaking. The future is bright, but not white.

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[TahoeJ]

this may be the only hope i have re:global warming/climate change

Well, ironically with maritime snowpacks we are starting to see less reliability / stability than before. The Tahoe 24/48 (which was always stupid but kind of true) is a thing of the past. Buried hoar layers and PWL’s are way more frequent nowadays.

[The SnowShow]

Well, ironically with maritime snowpacks we are starting to see less reliability / stability than before. The Tahoe 24/48 (which was always stupid but kind of true) is a thing of the past. Buried hoar layers and PWL’s are way more frequent nowadays.

Wow interesting. That sucks.

Here in CO, I feel like cold blower powder days are happening less and less each year. It seems like we have more storms each year with heavier, thicker snow.

Maybe I’m off on that observation??

[raisingarizona13]

Wow interesting. That sucks.

Here in CO, I feel like cold blower powder days are happening less and less each year. It seems like we have more storms each year with heavier, thicker snow.

Maybe I’m off on that observation??

I don't think you are off but our data set ain't really shit in the big picture spectrum. I think it seems likely to be a trend with global weirding but again, I'm no scientist. The winter of 18/19 was a heavy warm one from here and north to at least JXN. If you look at late season pics from that season of the lines in Jackson they are filled in like a more maritime pack than they are normally. I know Telluride was skiing super fat and stable that year and it sure was rad down here. I think those years may become a thing and I really liked that year but it's not going to be good if they are punctuated with extreme variability or that's my take on things at least.

It's definitely interesting to see these changes in real time for sure. The idea of a stable, midwinter snow pack in the San Juans sure does sound fun in the meantime before everything goes to complete shit IM(selfish)HO. For those that know the San Juans you know what I'm talking about, those imaginary dream lines that you always thought couldn't happen because of the instabilities are all of a sudden in play with mid winter powder snow? Well...........oh my. It may be going to shit but I'm going to try and see that clouds silver lining while I'm still breathing.

[The SnowShow]

^^ it’s a good way to look at it and I definitely don’t mind the warmer storms plastering the Rockies early season. But I fear that consistent super dry blower pow is getting rarer here. At least everywhere but the highest of north facing alpine slopes.

[raisingarizona13]

So we're getting dumped on here in Arizona. We may be one of if not the biggest winners in the intermountain west from this cycle. I just wanted to point this out and that snowfall patterns related to climate shift are a lot trickier than simply location.