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Welcome to our newest member, lisasutterfield.
Is the stock market going to tank?
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Stock market gained today after Supreme Court justices express doubt over Trump tariffs. So uh... Gorsuch doesn't sound like he's buying any of this at all:
Gorsuch: Could IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) be used by a future president to declare a climate change emergency
Sauer: Yes, it's very likely that could be done
Sauer: This admin would say it’s a hoax
Gorsuch: I’m sure you would😎 1Leave a comment:
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Turns out it was that simple. Taco don had to fly to China and surrender to xi.
Not sure its that simple... Yes we are dependent on rare earth minerals from China. BUT - as the world's largest manufacturing nation, China's economy is MUCH more dependent on exports than ours is, and especially - with the massive trade imbalance - exports to the US. A big drop in exports in general - and to the US specifically - would hurt the Chinese economy, much much more than decreased US exporting to China would hurt ours.Leave a comment:
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Not to worry. The powers that be will continue laying people off to protect the powers that be. Middle managers dropping by 1000s as I type. I know 2 who's jobs were eliminated last week. Got ABC News Radio from Australia in my earbuds right now.Leave a comment:
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Australian HSBC economists are forecasting no cuts for years and possibly even higher rates by 2027. That scenario explains why it can be both a good year for bonds in America, due to slowing growth. and at the same time a good year for the debasement trade in things like gold. Bonds for the short term business cycle, gold for a potential long term trendLeave a comment:
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And Aus just refused to cut because their inflation is + 3%.
"Australia’s consumer price index rose by 3.2% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, marking the most significant inflationary spike since mid-2024. This reading exceeded both the previous quarter’s 2.1% increase and the 3.0% forecast by Reuters-polled economists. It also pushed inflation back above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2%–3% target band for the first time in over a year."Leave a comment:
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RE: The .25 rate cut. I feel that Powell is making a clear decision for the economy and not the markets. I am OK with the rate cut.Leave a comment:
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There are real growth concerns:
Oil prices are down
Labor market is weak
Housing market is weak
Shelter inflation is up but weakening
Core goods are up but weakening
The Fed is also shrinking its balance sheet so liquidity might become an issue too
The main thing driving stocks, per this week's discussion, is margin expansion: higher margins = rising multiplesLeave a comment:
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I'm confused...inflation at 3% so above fed target of 2%, but plan is to rate cut?
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