Is the stock market going to tank?

[Benny Profane]

I think the only thing that will derail the equity markets is (are?) central banks raising rates. Everything else is but a bump in the road. With a long enough time frame, any valuation makes sense when borrowing costs are 0. “I’m buying stocks for the long-term” is the mantra right now.

Maybe, but, at these levels there's a shit ton more downside risk than cash or treasuries. Where's the return for that gamble?

[4matic]

I think the only thing that will derail the equity markets is (are?) central banks raising rates. Everything else is but a bump in the road. With a long enough time frame, any valuation makes sense when borrowing costs are 0. “I’m buying stocks for the long-term” is the mantra right now.

With the 30 year risk free rate at 1% what is the expected return from stocks? just the dividend is 2X yield right now. I suppose like bonds stocks can inflate beyond expectation to less than the treasury rate.

[Mazderati]

Cruisers are very sticky customers. They're basically addicted to the lifestyle.

Yeah, that was my takeaway reading through the cruise thread. Wondering if that carries through to Vegas since it seems like the cohorts overlap.

[4matic]

Vegas continues to gravitate to a much younger (lower risk) crowd. The party scene is becoming bigger than the gambling. Non-smoking becomes way more valued.

[Benny Profane]

With the 30 year risk free rate at 1% what is the expected return from stocks? just the dividend is 2X yield right now. I suppose like bonds stocks can inflate beyond expectation to less than the treasury rate.

I'm guessing that you can furgetabout dividends for a while. Wasn't it a provision in this stimulus bill to pass on dividends for a while?

[rod9301]

Corporate bonds aren't used for investment? If I invest in a company with debt I am investing with leverage. Individual Investors can have reliable cash flow too. I agree that passive investors should not use leverage fwiw.

You're one step removed when investing in a company that owes bonds.

I'm talking about you being leveraged.

Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[4matic]

I'm guessing that you can furgetabout dividends for a while. Wasn't it a provision in this stimulus bill to pass on dividends for a while?

The strong dividend payers didn't take any money. Cut the SP500 forward dividend in half and you still beat Treasury.

[4matic]

You're one step removed when investing in a company that owes bonds.

I'm talking about you being leveraged.

I refinanced my mortgage (twice) in the last 10 years so I could maximum the contribution amount into 401K, HSA, and IRA. Is that too much leverage? If you want to simplify and say don't use margin debt, futures, or options then ok but leverage as a singularity I'd have to say no.

[dunfree]

Yeah, that was my takeaway reading through the cruise thread. Wondering if that carries through to Vegas since it seems like the cohorts overlap.

Vegas has millions of international visitors that bring in serious $. Until longhaul travel restrictions change that portion of the business will be seriously impinged.

[4matic]

2% rally in junk bonds. What risk?!

[Mazderati]

Vegas has millions of international visitors that bring in serious $. Until longhaul travel restrictions change that portion of the business will be seriously impinged.

Even domestically, who wants to get on a plane. Big losses associated with postponed or cancelled conferences and the spending they bring. Capacity limits and spacing in casinos. Seems like an uphill battle.

[SkiCougar]

Vegas has millions of international visitors that bring in serious $. Until longhaul travel restrictions change that portion of the business will be seriously impinged.

2nd. have yet to go to a vegas casino but been in harrah's Tahoe enough to know distancing at a casino isn't going to work. lots of casinos, especially outside vegas are going to go under.

[Benny Profane]

NASDAQ now up for year. Jezuz.

[BobMc]

I’ve been pretty broke my entire life, used a meager 401k account to move to Utah years ago, been living on fumes for the years since. Started a business and then got fucked by letting in the wrong tenant.

Gained a bit of cash lately via Christmas gifts from equally middle class Mom. 2k into an Ameritrade account and I’m off to the races! I’m figuring on investing it into stuff I like, as in stuff I do. Bought 100 shares of Carnival last night at $12.00, slightly up today, probably more than I made at work. Thought about throwing the rest of it at RCL or NCL but decided to buy 100 shares of Camping World instead.

I’m hoping to buy stuff battered by the covids that I think will come back. I read a lot of cruising forums and pages, I’m not seeing a drop off in enthusiasm for cruising, most folks are rescheduling their cruises and the lines are being proactive. Anything travel related will take a while but you have to believe we’ll get back to normal eventually, I’m hoping I can turn my 2k into a vacation in a few years, .

Since April 9 my $2k has grown to $2769. Wins on both CWH and CCL, I hope it keeps up.

[jono]

Hope is a very popular plan. Yours?