Real Estate Crash thread

[Benny Profane]

Frank Thomas. The man who tried to make Michael Jordan a baseball player.

Has anyone read "The Millionare Next Door"? Good book, good advice. An important point - the WW2 parents of boomers carried little debt, and considered it a point of pride to have the mortgage paid off. Not borrowed against for "home improvements".

[huck4bucks]

So, those poor bastards who got into a house for the sake of getting a house and have their financial picture set using their interest only loan are in for a painful wake up call when they start eating into the principle.

Unless the value of the home is jumping at 23.3% in one year like mine is. In that case, I'm using other peoples' money to print my own. Thanks Wells Fargo!

[mrryde]

...or in my case, the bargain hunting. Bring it on. I'm in full vulture mode.

FKNA - We are starting to see this happen here, I am actually lining up some out of state money partners/buyers because there is already more deals than I can handle.

[mr_gyptian]

Frank Thomas. The man who tried to make Michael Jordan a baseball player.

Has anyone read "The Millionare Next Door"? Good book, good advice. An important point - the WW2 parents of boomers carried little debt, and considered it a point of pride to have the mortgage paid off. Not borrowed against for "home improvements".

I'm picking it up right after I finish Rich Dad, Poor Dad.

[Benny Profane]

Don't forget "Trust Fund Baby - I Don't Need No Stinking Job." It's on the shelf right next to "Titillating Tales of Trustafarians in the High Country".

[spindrift]

unless you live in a metro area that has had a ridiculously hot R.E. market you won't even know this is happening. Just ignor the NYT "The sky is falling" headlines and you'll be fine.

Yeah, click your heels three times and wish really hard and maybe it'll be true.

How can you possibly rationalize this point of view in light of the housing bubble, the amount of debt Americans have taken out of their homes to use as simple cash-flow (virtual annual raises), the large prooprtion of that debt that is variable rate, the amount that is virtually 100% of home value, and the increasing national debt???? Inquiring minds want to know.

The issue being raised in this thread is not a "sky is falling issue", it is an economic reality issue. If you want to stand in the way of a big slide, enjoy your ride...

Wanna buy a cool tulip?

[mr_gyptian]

Don't forget "Trust Fund Baby - I Don't Need No Stinking Job." It's on the shelf right next to "Titillating Tales of Trustafarians in the High Country".

Benny, I work and make more than you do. not only that, but I'm probably 20 years your junior. I also don't live in some suck ass midwestern town.

[mr_gyptian]

Yeah, click your heels three times and wish really hard and maybe it'll be true.

How can you possibly rationalize this point of view in light of the housing bubble, the amount of debt Americans have taken out of their homes to use as simple cash-flow (virtual annual raises), the large prooprtion of that debt that is variable rate, the amount that is virtually 100% of home value, and the increasing national debt???? Inquiring minds want to know.

The issue being raised in this thread is not a "sky is falling issue", it is an economic reality issue. If you want to stand in the way of a big slide, enjoy your ride...

Wanna buy a cool tulip?

If I'm in amsterdam I'm not buying tulips. heh.

I didn't say I didn't think the R.E. market was going to pull back. I'm just saying that the "crash" will be a localized phenomenon. additionally, that it will be covered in the press like every one is Tom Joad. Finally, that Paul Krugman, Maureen Dowd, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid will find some way to blame George Bush.

[spindrift]

Finally, that Paul Krugman, Maureen Dowd, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid will find some way to blame George Bush.

As they should. Although Nancy and Harry should eat their share too for being complicit in many of GWBs shenanigans while badmouthing him out the other side of their mouths.

Bottom line though is that Krugman has nailed the big picture issue analysis dead on for the past few years. Watch how it plays out. He groks the real underlying economics - and is not blinded by the admin's BS. The pain many Americans will be feeling (and it will hurt) will largely tie to swapping a stock bubble for a housing bubble and the inevitable large decline in the dollar due to Bush-o-nomics -- that fine process of spending more and not taxing enough to cover it. So yeah, people should be blaming Bush and his administration, and a complicit congress,...when the real value of their homes and savings collapses.

Now is a great time to be sure you are not in the path of the economic tsunami being brought to you courtesy of GWB & company...,

[mr_gyptian]

swapping a stock bubble for a R.E. bubble? the real estate market on a macro level has been rising since Bush I was in office. I grant you that it has heated up over the past couple of years, but the Bay Area was en fuego in the late 90s but softened quite a bit after the internet stock crash. but to say people are swapping a stock investment/401k investment bubble for a real estate investment bubble is patently false. but, that must be why you read Paul "Enron will be bigger than 9/11" Krugman and agree with what he says.

you've left out the "Rich get Richer" spin.

[Cono Este]

You have toadmit though, Tom Vu was dead on the last 15yrs.

[Benny Profane]

Maureen Dowd??? For fucks sake, what the hell does she have to do with this? Shit, 75% of the boneheads who thought it would last forever don't even know who she is. And she could give a fuck. She's probably sipping wine right now in the Hamptons, eyeing her meal ticket possibilities for later life.

Thomas Freidman is the man you should read. He's been telling the world in simple terms over the last decade how the world is changing, the field leveling. Woe to those who ignore it. Read the Lexus and the Olive Tree, and The world is Flat.

But, of course, I sense that someone's got that "liberal media" hate thing goin' on, which always begs the question, if you don't read those papers, where do you get your info? Fox? Rush?

[mr_gyptian]

I like Friedman, he can be pretty expedient politically sometimes but overall he's the talent of that Op-editorial page.

I don't believe I've ever purposely listened to Rush Limbaugh. I saw more of him on ESPN than I've ever heard him on the radio.

but since you asked I read the WaPo website daily, the Washington Times, and the WSJ.

[spindrift]

you've left out the "Rich get Richer" spin.

What spin? The policies of the Bush admin all but guarantee a significant increase in the concentration of capital. The structure of the income tax cuts, estate tax phase out, foreign investment opportunities, currency movement, etc. -- all of them drive to a common outcome. You don't need conspiracy theories, or to believe that any group of people are evil or are in collusion. You just need to look at the inevitable economic consequences of Bush's policies. And the likely impact on the US real estate market.

What is it that causes you to use the term "spin" in this context? What makes it so hard to see simple cause and effect?

[mr_gyptian]

What spin? The policies of the Bush admin all but guarantee a significant increase in the concentration of capital. The structure of the income tax cuts, estate tax phase out, foreign investment opportunities, currency movement, etc. -- all of them drive to a common outcome. You don't need conspiracy theories, or to believe that any group of people are evil or are in collusion. You just need to look at the inevitable economic consequences of Bush's policies. And the likely impact on the US real estate market.

What is it that causes you to use the term "spin" in this context? What makes it so hard to see simple cause and effect?

To paraphrase Tom Wolfe "A Noble Class always seems to be descending on the United States but it always seems to land somewhere else."

I wonder if all the "poor" people that fell off the tax roles are bitching about Bush's tax policies that favor the rich?