SSU insolvency and the bike industry generally

[stuckathuntermtn]

Are people really surprised that this is happening in an industry that is saturated with nearly identical products(as far as the average person is concerned)? I realize that the hardcore riders notice the subtle differences in products but that’s a vanishingly small part of the market. It’s also not surprising that paid and sponsored riders that have no added value to the bottom line, they’re an expense on the balance sheet, will lose their jobs and sponsorship as sales dwindle and profits fall.


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Is the ski industry that different though? At least, is it that different on the manufacturing side? And it feels like we haven't seen the same carnage. Then again, the ski industry had to set itself up to be dependent on unfavorable weather and climate trends for a number of years now. It's also probably a lot more consolidated when it comes to manufacturers, never mind the whole resort side of things.

[sfotex]

Is the ski industry that different though? At least, is it that different on the manufacturing side? And it feels like we haven't seen the same carnage. Then again, the ski industry had to set itself up to be dependent on unfavorable weather and climate trends for a number of years now. It's also probably a lot more consolidated when it comes to manufacturers, never mind the whole resort side of things.

Skis are a lot simpler/cheaper to make and the supply chain is nowhere near as complex as bikes - edges, base material, wood. etc. that can be used on a new model (within reason) vs. what are we going to do with the 10,000 SuperBoost cranksets we ordered 2 years ago and already paid for?
Press a new top sheet on last years model and its this years model vs. a bike with parts from how many factories.
Kind of simplified, but you get the idea..... and there's a lot more money in 'resort' skiing to keep stuff going. vs. buying a bike and riding trails for free.

[rideit]

Pertinent quote:
I remembered a Warren Buffet quote that seems applicable to the bike biz these days:

"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked" - Warren Buffett.

Hate to say it, but it’s a safe bet in the months ahead we’ll find out who else is in the water without a swimsuit.

[stuckathuntermtn]

Skis are a lot simpler/cheaper to make and the supply chain is nowhere near as complex as bikes - edges, base material, wood. etc. that can be used on a new model (within reason) vs. what are we going to do with the 10,000 SuperBoost cranksets we ordered 2 years ago and already paid for?
Press a new top sheet on last years model and its this years model vs. a bike with parts from how many factories.
Kind of simplified, but you get the idea..... and there's a lot more money in 'resort' skiing to keep stuff going. vs. buying a bike and riding trails for free.

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

[SchralphMacchio]

SSU insolvency and the bike industry generally

Skis are a lot simpler/cheaper to make and the supply chain is nowhere near as complex as bikes - edges, base material, wood. etc. that can be used on a new model (within reason) vs. what are we going to do with the 10,000 SuperBoost cranksets we ordered 2 years ago and already paid for?
Press a new top sheet on last years model and its this years model vs. a bike with parts from how many factories.
Kind of simplified, but you get the idea..... and there's a lot more money in 'resort' skiing to keep stuff going. vs. buying a bike and riding trails for free.

Yeah, when it comes to high end bikes there really is just SRAM and Shimano for drivetrains, and Shimano did not increase capacity. I’m sure ski binding tooling has some specialized production, but the ski binding market is also way more diversified than just two global producers making the bulk of high quality bindings! But yeah the BOM and subassembly processes for bikes are way way way deeper than skis. And bindings. Boots might be closer to bike frames but that’s a wild guess on my part.

I also sense that there was a greater pull forward effect for all of cycling segments in 2020 and 2021 versus what we saw as crowds in 2021 at ski resorts. One, there is probably a greater natural saturation for skiing versus cycling - just way more places where people can do the latter vs the former. Ski areas also had less time under stay at home and work from home periods; they closed in March 2020 and didn’t reopen until the following season. Bike brands canceled manufacturing orders in what, Feb and March 2020, and then got the signals that consumers stuck at home really wanted bikes in what, May?, after all the US and Europe fiscal backstops were put in place?

[EWG]

Yeah, when it comes to high end bikes there really is just SRAM and Shimano for drivetrains, and Shimano did not increase capacity. I’m sure ski binding tooling has some specialized production, but the ski binding market is also way more diversified than just two global producers making the bulk of high quality bindings! But yeah the BOM and subassembly processes for bikes are way way way deeper than skis. And bindings. Boots might be closer to bike frames but that’s a wild guess on my part.

The fact that Shimano stuck with their 5% growth limit is both incredible and a lesson.

[nickwm21]

Shimano being extra conservative through that cycle doesn’t surprise me….

They are an ancient company by cycling standards that’s diversified into other markets. The people making the decisions there very possibly have broader experience than the people at other cycling companies.

It also seems distinctly Japanese to stick to that growth plan. Think of how slow product cycles are at Japanese name brands (Toyota, Nintendo, Sony, Shimano obv…) compared to their foreign competitors. Everything is about perfecting a product and keeping in market for as long as they can. Speeding up growth could compromise quality and that’s not the way they do business…


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[toast2266]

Shimano was just biding their time, waiting to see if the pandemic boom and bust cycle opened up a window to bring back the front derailleur.

[rideit]

I am confident that Shimano’s release of a truly wireless shifting setup is going to be refined and reliable. It would be ‘nice’ if they re-engineered their brakes while they are at it, but I’m not holding my breath.

[singlesline]

But yeah the BOM and subassembly processes for bikes are way way way deeper than skis. And bindings. Boots might be closer to bike frames but that’s a wild guess on my part.

I think there’s a reason you don’t see many boutique boots (or bindings really…)

Although they are also a lot less sexy…limit to how wild and exciting you can get on a boot.

[SchralphMacchio]

I think there’s a reason you don’t see many boutique boots (or bindings really…)

Although they are also a lot less sexy…limit to how wild and exciting you can get on a boot.

I once had dinner with the ski goods director at BD (and Bruce Tremper happened to be at that table), and he told us they were pulling out of boots because the shell molds were so damn costly and they weren’t generating the sales volume to get decent returns against the capital expense. Hell, ski boots might be worse than bike frames from a Capex perspective because a given bike frame usually has 4 or 5 frame sizes, but boots have like 7 to 10 shell sizes?

I will tell you, I used to do forecasting for products at a major manufacturer in a totally different industry, and yeah, I relied on a combination of historical data, sales team updates and mostly … gut guesswork. When you have a rapidly growing order backlog, it’s not common for any bosses to ask Product Marketing, “is this real?” The Marketing bosses would simply get all over Supply Chain about why they are behind if the orders were all forecasted. The product marketing folks at my old company pushed the forecasts onto supply chain, and when material or CapEx commitment levels were big enough it required convincing SVPs to sign off. So maybe that process totally failed in the bike industry?
Also, my old company is vertically integrated within the continent (own the brands, plants, regional distribution warehouses) so we weren’t putting out POs for a full year of finished goods or anything with such wild stock levels, very different fulfillment process from bikes.

[SchralphMacchio]

Shimano was just biding their time, waiting to see if the pandemic boom and bust cycle opened up a window to bring back the front derailleur.

I laughed [emoji23]

[rideit]

Well, they did bring back 11 speed as a ‘new’ product category!

[buttahflake]

Is Rapha done now, also?

[Tailwind]

No. They have strong enough financial backing that they’ll outlast a lot of other companies.

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/rapha-lays-off-employees-closes-north-american-office

They laid off six people. You can read tea leaves here but they are making an adjustment likely based on declining sales.

For a lot of years, we had more new companies than we had companies going out of business. What we’ll start to see at some point is that “X number of people still want to buy bikes this month. They might have bought a Kona… but Kona is gone (or doesn’t look viable) and so they’re now going to buy a bike from Evo on sale.”

That’ll just take time to shake out. I’d bet on Rapha making it through a wave of smaller companies closing and sales rebounding. Time will tell but eventually this might be good for the big players (which sucks).

Is Rapha done now, also?