Ukraine

[Bunion 2020]

One "myth" in particular kicked off a furious debate in e-mail threads, chat rooms, listservs, and on Twitter: "Russia was promised that NATO would not enlarge."

https://www.rferl.org/a/nato-expansi.../31263602.html

From Gorby:

Former Soviet President Gorbachev’s View

We now have a very authoritative voice from Moscow confirming this understanding. Russia behind the Headlines has published an interview with Gorbachev, who was Soviet president during the discussions and treaty negotiations concerning German reunification. The interviewer asked why Gorbachev did not “insist that the promises made to you [Gorbachev]—particularly U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s promise that NATO would not expand into the East—be legally encoded?” Gorbachev replied: “The topic of ‘NATO expansion’ was not discussed at all, and it wasn’t brought up in those years. … Another issue we brought up was discussed: making sure that NATO’s military structures would not advance and that additional armed forces would not be deployed on the territory of the then-GDR after German reunification. Baker’s statement was made in that context… Everything that could have been and needed to be done to solidify that political obligation was done. And fulfilled.”

Gorbachev continued that “The agreement on a final settlement with Germany said that no new military structures would be created in the eastern part of the country; no additional troops would be deployed; no weapons of mass destruction would be placed there. It has been obeyed all these years.” To be sure, the former Soviet president criticized NATO enlargement and called it a violation of the spirit of the assurances given Moscow in 1990, but he made clear there was no promise regarding broader enlargement.

Several years after German reunification, in 1997, NATO said that in the “current and foreseeable security environment” there would be no permanent stationing of substantial combat forces on the territory of new NATO members. Up until the Russian military occupation of Crimea in March, there was virtually no stationing of any NATO combat forces on the territory of new members. Since March, NATO has increased the presence of its military forces in the Baltic region and Central Europe.

Putin is not stupid, and his aides surely have access to the former Soviet records from the time and understand the history of the commitments made by Western leaders and NATO. But the West’s alleged promise not to enlarge the Alliance will undoubtedly remain a standard element of his anti-NATO spin. That is because it fits so well with the picture that the Russian leader seeks to paint of an aggrieved Russia, taken advantage of by others and increasingly isolated—not due to its own actions, but because of the machinations of a deceitful West.

[charlesj]

Mearsheimer stated back in the 90s that Ukraine shouldn’t give up their nukes (when the USSR dissolved Ukraine was the third biggest nuclear power) his point was that nations with nukes don’t get invaded. I was not aware of this at the time, and like most people, I thought fewer nukes in the world would be a good thing. The US taxpayers spent a lot of money disarming a vast arsenal that in retrospect could have prevented the current war. Retrospect is easy though.

[Bunion 2020]

Three decades ago, the newly independent country of Ukraine was briefly the third-largest nuclear power in the world.

Thousands of nuclear arms had been left on Ukrainian soil by Moscow after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. But in the years that followed, Ukraine made the decision to completely denuclearize.

In exchange, the U.S., the U.K. and Russia would guarantee Ukraine's security in a 1994 agreement known as the Budapest Memorandum.

Now, that agreement is front and center again.

https://www.npr.org/2022/02/21/10821...putin-invasion

Who needs WMDs when you have a guarantee from the US, UK and Russia?

And there's a mechanism of consultations that is provided for in the memorandum should any issues arise, and it was mobilized for the first time on March 4, 2014.

So there was a meeting of the signatories of the memorandum that was called by Ukraine and it did take place in Paris. And the foreign minister of the Russian Federation, Sergey Lavrov, who was in Paris at the time, simply did not show up. So he wouldn't even come to the meeting in connection with the memorandum.

[Russia argues that it] signed it with a different government, not with this "illegitimate" one. But that, of course, does not stand to any international legal kind of criteria. You don't sign agreements with the government, you sign it with the country.

There certainly is a good measure of regret, and some of it is poorly informed. It would have cost Ukraine quite a bit, both economically and in terms of international political repercussions, to hold on to these arms. So it would not have been an easy decision.

But in public sphere these more simple narratives take hold. The narrative in Ukraine, publicly is: We had the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal, we gave it up for this signed piece of paper, and look what happened.

And it really doesn't look good for the international non-proliferation regime. Because if you have a country that disarms and then becomes a target of such a threat and a victim of such a threat at the hands of a nuclear-armed country, it just sends a really wrong signal to other countries that might want to pursue nuclear weapons.

[MultiVerse]

Before he died America’s favorite un indicted war criminal Henry Kissinger suggested Ukraine and Russia should cut a deal to end the war. I’ve always despised Henry Kissinger but he was right. Henry K had so much blood on his hands when he died but he wasn’t an idiot, peacenik or Putin stooge.

Mearsheimer was right long ago when he said that NATO’s unrelenting march eastward would have blowback. The US promised Gorbachev no NATO expansion in exchange for recognition of a reunited Germany. Since then NATO arms markets, er uh I mean ally nations, have grown considerably

Look at the Cuban Missile Crisis. Superpower doesn’t like the change of government in what was a client state next door, justifiably feels threatened by missiles and mobilizes troops for an invasion bigger than D day. Two smart leaders, both of whom had known war, find a solution that postpones WWIII. They averted oblivion through negotiation, they cut a deal. Removal of missiles from Cuba and Turkey, no WWIII.

Wrong on all 3 counts. (1) Kissinger initially argued for a negotiated truce but after the scale of Russia's full scale invasion became clear he said in May 2023 that Ukraine should join NATO, “So, for the safety of Europe, it is better to have Ukraine in NATO.”

(2) Gorbachev himself said there was never any promise against Eastern European NATO accession. NATO is a defensive alliance that poses zero threat to Russia. Mearsheimer on the other hand is a Kremlin apologist who justifies Russian imperialism by blaming NATO expansion. "NATO expansion" however is primarily a Western anti-Ukrainian talking point. For Russia its unprovoked invasion is less about NATO, or religion, or robbing resources, as it is about ethnic Russian imperialism—asserted over-and-over by Putin and Kremlin officials..

(3) Putin rejected all negotiated settlements. He rejected a deal negotiated by his own aide in which Ukraine agreed not to join NATO, which wasn't even on the table, because Russia's invasion was never about the Kremlin narratives promoted in Western media. Like Hitler’s annexation of Austria and Czechoslovakia in 1938, this war is about Putin's expansionist ethnic imperialistic ambitions.

[charlesj]

I’m always amazed by those who advocate admitting Ukraine to NATO mid war. The way we used to do it back in the Cold War was called a proxy war, that way you avoid a world war.

The GOP was taken over by a sociopathic imbecile. A handful of his is most moronic sycophants in congress are cynically holding US foreign policy hostage at the expense of a nation at war. WTF

[MultiVerse]

Russia openly admits it's at war with the West with ambitions well beyond Ukraine. In other Western countries Russia engages in hybrid warfare through concerted propaganda campaigns, cyber warfare, and targeted assassinations. Russia's unprovoked invasion and hot war in Ukraine is a gross violation of the peaceful post-Cold War European security framework.

Ukraine and the Ukrainian people fight Russia of their own free will for reasons of their own that have little to do with Western politics. They are nobody's puppets, and it is in our interest to support them. Ukrainians are American and Western allies who are under attack by a malevolent revanchist dictatorship. Ukrainian defeat at the hands of Russian aggression could in hindsight mark the onset of a world at war, not the other around. Every dollar & euro invested in Ukraine’s defense helps protect global democracy and stability.

[twat]

For a country struggling with ammunition and man power Ukraine is doing pretty good. The frontline has not collapsed.

And the poster (Charlesj) below. You really like to debate. Arguing about fantasy narratives. Ukr is not nato member so there was no reason to invade. The Kiev Nazis sounds strange to me. There is only two countries with real Nazis. The rest are just strange Plagiates.

Bring it. There is 20 other users waiting for your bullshit arguments.

[charlesj]

So those who don’t agree 100% with the perceptions and beliefs of the majority of people posting in this thread, should just STFU?

I would agree with the vast majority that the west should support Ukraine. That does not preclude a negotiated peace.

I also agree that Putin is dangerous for the region and the world.

But if you want to talk of meddling, assassinations, dirty, tricks, and starting wars maybe one should also look in the mirror ar the history of the United States since it first sought empire.

[ötzi]

You don't have to think that the US is perfect - or even good - to agree that Russia must be stopped.

[skaredshtles]

You don't have to think that the US is perfect - or even good - to agree that Russia must be stopped.

This. x1,000,000

[MultiVerse]

I don't know what so called "perceptions and beliefs" has to do with anything when the Kremlin’s intentions are already abundantly clear. Yesterday, for example, former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev said the concept of an independent Ukrainian identity must "disappear for good." Most Americans don’t want Russia to win.

[charlesj]

You don't have to think that the US is perfect - or even good - to agree that Russia must be stopped.

Quite true.

[Mazderati]

I wonder what some of the negotiators would do if forced to be face-to-face with someone intent on killing them. Pros and cons list over a cup of tea?

[Toadman]

War is either about money or religion.

Or land, or a simple misunderstanding.

[BmillsSkier]

I wonder what some of the negotiators would do if forced to be face-to-face with someone intent on killing them. Pros and cons list over a cup of tea?

Is that a hint of polonium I detect?

[BCMtnHound]

I put source of conflict with access to resources, security of property/wealth, or fragility of ego (which includes religion).

Climate change is going to put the first one at the forefront when large groups of people no longer have access to water or food. Buckle up!

[Meadow Skipper]

But if you want to talk of meddling, assassinations, dirty, tricks, and starting wars maybe one should also look in the mirror ar the history of the United States since it first sought empire.

^ Whataboutism

[xyz]

Attachment 489349

He doesn’t need more ammo. He needs peace talks.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[ötzi]

No he just needs ammo. Ukrainians are unbelievably tough. They lost 3.5-5 million in the Holomodor, then 5 to 7 million in WW2, and still managed to survive and even thrive despite decades of Soviet rule. THey'll be fine, they just need ammo.

[xyz]

No he just needs ammo. Ukrainians are unbelievably tough. They lost 3.5-5 million in the Holomodor, then 5 to 7 million in WW2, and still managed to survive and even thrive despite decades of Soviet rule. THey'll be fine, they just need ammo.

You’re seriously a sick Fuk advocating for more death. If that’s what you support, put down your key board down and go fight on the front lines.

[MultiVerse]

Every single day another fake anti-war fascist Putin apologist calling for Russian occupation of Ukraine which means mass arrests, filtration camps, mass murder and thousands of kidnapped children.

[ötzi]

You’re seriously a sick Fuk advocating for more death. If that’s what you support, put down your key board down and go fight on the front lines.

pfft

[ex-powderbroker]

Ukraine has decided more than once it wants to decide its own future. Why won’t the people who think we should simply hand them and their children over to Russia acknowledge this?

Ukraine is game to you?

[BCMtnHound]

You’re seriously a sick Fuk advocating for more death. If that’s what you support, put down your key board down and go fight on the front lines.

And what is stopping you from heading to Moscow and suing for peace outside the Kremlin? If it’s the cost of airfare start a gofundme. Send me the link, I’ll pony up.

[Meadow Skipper]

You’re seriously a sick Fuk advocating for more death. If that’s what you support, put down your key board down and go fight on the front lines.

You’re a seriously sick Fuk for advocating cultural domination, submission, and extermination. If that’s what you support, put down your key board and go say that to Ukrainians.